November 2004

Milk quota demand rise likely

With summer over and no sign of the long talked about Indian summer materialising, autumn has arrived with a vengeance, writes Tim Parsons, of H&H Bowe.

Many farmers have brought their herds in early for winter. True production is down, well down on last year, but don't forget last years production was very high and with a change in calving patterns to compensate for last years high yield a good autumn calving this year is expected and in a months time when the cows have settled into their winter routine, production could well be on the rise. Last year’s trading was a breeze, all that quota that had to be sold due to the Thomsen case and high production meant plenty of takers.

This year, we still need to look in the crystal ball sometimes but after a quiet couple of months trading the phones have started ringing again and we predict production will increase over the coming months and demand on quota will force prices to rise again. At the time of going to press 3.85%bf is trading around 14.5ppl and 4% at around 15ppl, used quota 7ppl. As yet there is not a lot of leasing coming forward but we are only half way through the year and many figures will be done over the coming months on how much surplus quota is available to lease out or needs to be leased in. Currently leased quota is trading at 7ppl. But don't forget if you lease out quota you won't be entitled to dairy premium payment on that quota. At the time of writing we have a total of 8 million litres to trade, this includes both sales and lease.

This is the last year for suckler cow quota trading so prices for both leasing and sales are the same around £140 for English LFA and £130 for GB Lowland. H&H Bowe will be trading until Friday November 19 as all forms need to be submitted to the RPA by December 6. Demand is fair and supply is limited. We look forward to hearing from you or alternatively call in and see us on the concourse at Borderway.

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